Michael Mauboussin Resources

I have been working with the team at Colossus to develop the transcripts for past Episodes of the business podcast Invest Like The Best. It’s been an incredible experience going through 35+ podcasts in the space of a month and a half. One of the fascinating people I listened to was Michael Mauboussin. He is a prolific writer, author, and thinker who works as Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and has been in the investment business for 30+ years now.

I decided to collect most of the writings and other content he has made or been involved in.  This is a resource page for this content. I will be updating this list often. Feedback welcome.


Base Rates and Bees with Michael Mauboussin (2021)  

Great Migration Public to Private Equity (Colossus | 2020)

Michael Mauboussin- Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (Colossus | 2020)

Investing in times of (the Coronavirus) Crisis

Mauboussin & Duke On Luck And Getting Better At Quitting (2020)

The Four Sources of Alpha (Colossus | 2019)

Michael Mauboussin on The Success Equation (Jim Rutt Show | 2019)

Man + Machine, Moats, and Power of the Outside View (Colossus | 2017)

Active Asset Management (Colossus | 2016)  

When To Trust Your Gut: Michael Mauboussin on Intuition, Technology, and Making Better Decisions (Farnam Street |2015)

Michael Mauboussin on the Decision Education Podcast


Why value investing still works in markets (Financial Times | 2021)

Research Reports:

Behavioral Finance

What’s Going On in Your Brain? Common Investor Biases and Where They Come From (2015)

Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills – Foresight Is a Measurable Skill That You Can Cultivates (2015) 

When Investing – What Matters More Skills or Luck? (2012)

Aver and Aversion: What Two Recent Experiments Mean for Investors (2005)

Are You an Expert? (2002)

The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency versus Magnitude (2002)

Understanding Businesses and Valuation

The Economics of Customer Businesses: Calculating Customer-Based Corporate Valuation (2021)

One Job: Expectations and the Role of Intangible Investments (2020)

WACC and Vol: Valuation for Companies with Real Options (2020)

Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation (2016)

Animating Mr. Market: Adopting a Proper Psychological Attitude (2015)

Corporate Longevity: Index Turnover and Corporate Performance (2017)

The Base Rate Book: Integrating the Past to Better Anticipate the Future (2016)

Total Addressable Market – Methods to Estimate a Company’s Potential Sales (2015)

The Ecosystem Edge (2005)

M&M on Valuation (2005)

Thoughts on Valuation II (2001)

The Trouble with Earnings and Price/Earnings Multiples

Get Real: Using Real Options in Security Analysis (1999)

Competitive Advantage Period “CAP”: The Neglected Value Driver (1997)

Thoughts on Valuation (1997)

Capital Allocation and Markets

Market-Expected Return on Investment: Bridging Accounting and Valuation (2021)

Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look (2020)

Dispersion and Alpha Conversion: How Dispersion Creates the Opportunity to Express Skill

The Math of Value and Growth Growth, Return on Capital, and the Discount Rate (2020)

Capital Allocation Outside the U.S. – Evidence, Analytical Models, and Assessment Guidance (2016)

Looking for Easy Games: How Passive Investing Shapes Active Management (2017)

Capital Allocation – Updated Evidence, Analytical Methods, and Assessment Guidance (2016)

Disbursing Cash to Shareholders Frequently Asked Questions about Buybacks and Dividends (2014)

Alpha and the Paradox of Skill Results Reflect Your Skill and the Game You Are Playing (2013)

Clear Thinking about Share Repurchase (2010)

Size Matters

Capital Ideas Revisited—Part 2: Thoughts on Beating a Mostly-Efficient Stock Market (2005)

Capital Ideas Revisited The Prime Directive, Sharks, and The Wisdom of Crowds (2005)

Reflections on Life and Investing 

Thirty Years: Reflections on the 10 attributes of great investors (2016)

Lessons from Freestyle Chess: Merging Fundamental and Quantitative Analysis (2014)


Surge in the Urge to Merge (2010)


The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (2012)

Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (2009)

More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (2006)

Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns (2001)


Motley Fool: Interview with Michael Mauboussin

Columbia University: Interview with Michael Mauboussin


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